Big Ten Preview

Big Ten Preview

A top heavy league they’re saying. Over the past few years, the Big Ten has been top heavy comparatively to the SEC (you’re always going to appear that way when you’ve produced 3 unique national champions in 3 years). I think there is merit in the theory that the Big Ten has been the overall best conference recently while the SEC still retains more leaguewide depth. Will that stay the same this year?

Overall, yes, I think so. I still see an “S tier” trio of teams this year with a drop-off for the rest of the league. How close the rest gets to the top 3, however, only time will tell. See below for my Big Ten rankings, schedule predictions, and detailed analyses for each of the 18 teams.

Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 +100

Projected Record: 11-1

Offense: A
Defense: A

The Ducks are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball. Everywhere you look is stud after stud. With Dante Moore coming back and Evan Stewart returning from injury, this passing attack should be even more lethal than it was last year even with the loss of Kenyon Sadiq (could Jamari Johnson be better?). The running game should still be fine even with Jordon Davison going down with an injury in fall camp. This defensive line is going to make it absolutely hell for whoever is lining up against them each game and with Koi Perich brought in to anchor down the back-end, there’s nowhere to really poke holes in this defense. The only question mark here is Dan Lanning’s two new coordinators replacing Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi. Still, my pick to win the league.

Schedule

9/5 Boise State W

9/12 @ Oklahoma State W

9/18 Portland State W

9/26 @ USC W

10/10 UCLA W

10/17 Nebraska W

10/24 @ Illinois W

10/31 Northwestern W

11/7 @ Ohio State L

11/14 Michigan W

11/20 @ Michigan State W

11/28 Washington W

Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 +105

Projected Record: 11-1

Offense: A
Defense: A

Can they run it back with Josh Hoover? We shall see as the Hoosiers start off their title defense campaign with what should be 6-0 heading into a mid-October clash with the Buckeyes. Offensively, I honestly think this team will be better than last year. Adding Turbo Richard and Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh alongside gunslinger Hoover is going to make this offense at the very least more explosive. Defensively, there are more questions, specifically in the secondary with Penn State transfer AJ Harris coming into replace D’Angelo Ponds. However, defensive coordinator Bryant Haines is the best in the business, so I trust this should be an elite unit once again. If there’s issues in the secondary, the D-line talent and depth should do more than enough to mitigate it. This should be a surefire playoff team.

Schedule

9/5 North Texas W

9/12 Howard W

9/19 Western Kentucky W

9/25 Northwestern W

10/3 @ Rutgers W

10/10 @ Nebraska W

10/17 Ohio State W

10/24 @ Michigan W

10/31 Minnesota W

11/14 USC W

11/21 @ Washington L

11/28 Purdue W

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 -180

Projected Record: 10-2

Offense: A+
Defense: A-

The Buckeyes ended their 2025 campaign with a disappointing 2-game postseason. They look to bounce-back this year, but it is going to be a challenge with the absolute bear of a schedule they have in front of them. Led by returning sophomore Julian Sayin, I think this offense projects to be the best in college football. Sayin has a bounty of receivers to choose from as is tradition in Columbus but I’m foreseeing Jeremiah Smith having that absolutely monster season we’ve all been waiting for under new OC Arthur Smith. Defensively though, there is a lot of talent that headed off to the NFL that needs to be replaced. Matt Patricia should do a fine job as the Buckeyes’ coffers are never bare of talent. Kenyatta Jackson, Wisconsin transfer Christian Alliegro, and sophomore DB Devin Sanchez should lead a solid unit. With this schedule, the Buckeyes just need to get into the playoff and then see what noise they can make from there.

Schedule

9/5 Ball State W

9/12 @ Texas W

9/19 Kent State W

9/26 Illinois W

10/3 @ Iowa L

10/10 Maryland W

10/17 @ Indiana L

10/31 @ USC W

11/7 Oregon W

11/14 Northwestern W

11/21 @ Nebraska W

11/28 Michigan W

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 -170

Projected Record: 10-2

Offense: B+
Defense: B

Jedd Fisch’s 3rd year in Seattle hopefully kicks off by putting the Demond Williams transfer drama behind them. Even with the drama and a relatively thin and unknown group at wideout, I’d still take Demond Williams as my quarterback with the amount of talent he has. This offense should excel behind him and 4 returning starters on the offensive line. The defense for the Huskies forecasts as transfer heavy, however, there is a lot of depth on the roster, especially in the front 7. They’ll need some of the transfers to step up in a huge way to fill in the gaps around DT Elinneus Davis and veteran linebacker Jacob Manu. If everything comes together, the Huskies definitely have an outside shot at a playoff bid.

Schedule

9/6 Washington State W

9/12 Utah State W

9/19 Eastern Washington W

9/26 Minnesota W

10/3 @ USC L

10/9 Iowa W

10/16 @ Purdue W

10/31 @ Nebraska W

11/7 Penn State W

11/14 @ Michigan State W

11/21 Indiana W

11/28 @ Oregon L

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 -166

Projected Record: 9-3

Offense: B
Defense: B+

Matt Campbell and Penn State kick off a new era in 2026 in State College. Alongside 24 transfers from Iowa State, Campbell has entirely imported and rebuilt this roster starting with signal caller Rocco Becht. I see this offense as being anywhere from average to above average this year depending on the play of Becht, if they can answer some questions on the O-Line, and if an elite playmaker can emerge outside of fellow transfers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen. Defensively, I’m a little more bullish with the Nittany Lions tabbing new DC D’Anton Lynn. The strength of this unit is definitely up the middle with Keanu Williams, Kooper Ebel, and Marcus Neal. It should be a very successful first year for Matt Campbell, but I don’t see a playoff bid even with the easy schedule.

Schedule

9/5 Marshall W

9/12 @ Temple W

9/19 Buffalo W

9/26 Wisconsin W

10/2 @ Northwestern L

10/10 USC W

10/17 @ Michigan L

10/31 Purdue W

11/7 @ Washington L

11/14 Minnesota W

11/21 Rutgers W

11/28 @ Maryland W

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 +115

Projected Record: 8-4

Offense: A-
Defense: B-

Can Lincoln Riley finally make something happen in Los Angeles? I’m going with the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach. Jayden Maiava returns to lead the Trojan attack while replacing departing NFL players on the outside with a bevy of talented options including NC State transfer Terrell Anderson and touted prospect Tanook Hines. Waymond Jordan and King Miller also headline one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back. Yes, we know, this Lincoln Riley USC offense is going to be good as it always is. Defense is where the rubber meets the road per usual. The Trojans return 6 defensive starters from last year’s 11th rated Big Ten defense but can new DC Gary Patterson make a huge difference to elevate this unit this year? Again, wait and see for me.

Schedule

8/29 San Jose State W

9/4 Fresno State W

9/12 Louisiana-Lafayette W

9/19 @ Rutgers W

9/26 Oregon L

10/3 Washington W

10/10 @ Penn State L

10/24 @ Wisconsin W

10/31 Ohio State L

11/14 @ Indiana L

11/21 Maryland W

11/28 @ UCLA W

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 -186

Projected Record: 8-4

Offense: B-
Defense: B+

On paper, Kyle Whittingham and Michigan football stylistically seem like a match made in heaven. Tough, physical football. Which means the Wolverines shouldn’t have a tough time running the football this year especially with an excellent running back duo in Jordan Marshall and hyped freshman Savion Hiter behind an offensive line that returns 4 starters from the old regime. This also projects to be a sneaky good receiver room headlined by true sophomore Andrew Marsh and Texas transfer Jaime Ffrench. On the other side of the ball, John Henry Daley up front and veteran DB Jyaire Hill anchor a defense that should be a surefire top 5 unit in the Big Ten this year. Inevitably, however, this team’s ceiling is determined by how much of a jump Bryce Underwood can make heading into his sophomore season. If he makes noticeable strides, the Wolverines could find themselves back in the playoffs in year 1 of the Whittingham era.

Schedule

9/5 Western Michigan W

9/12 Oklahoma L

9/19 UTEP W

9/26 Iowa W

10/3 @ Minnesota W

10/17 Penn State W

10/24 Indiana L

10/31 @ Rutgers W

11/7 Michigan State W

11/14 @ Oregon L

11/21 UCLA W

11/28 @ Ohio State L

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 -140

Projected Record: 8-4

Offense: B-
Defense: B

Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes project for more of the same again this year. Expect a lot of pounding the rock from redshirt junior Kamari Moulton who should have a big season behind center Kade Pieper and the O-line. Replacing Mark Gronowski will either be Wake Forest transfer Jeremy Hecklinski or Auburn transfer Hank Brown. I think whoever wins that battle will be serviceable enough to lead the office (at least by Iowa standards), however there are a lot of question marks about the pass catchers for the Hawkeyes this year. Defensively, Phil Parker might have the most uncertainty he’s had in his Iowa tenure with a transfer-laden roster. The secondary looks like a strength with redshirt senior Deshaun Lee returning while there are more questions in the front 7. Ultimately though, this defense will still guaranteed be in the top half of the league, and I think the Hawkeyes could reel in a big fish this year with the Buckeyes coming into town just as the weather starts to turn in Iowa City.

Schedule

9/5 Northern Illinois W

9/12 Iowa State W

9/19 Northern Iowa W

9/26 @ Michigan L

10/3 Ohio State W

10/9 @ Washington L

10/24 @ Minnesota L

10/31 Wisconsin W

11/7 @ Northwestern W

11/14 Purdue W

11/21 @ Illinois L

11/27 Nebraska W

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 +120

Projected Record: 7-5

Offense: B
Defense: C+

Many are predicting Bret Bielema’s squad to take a small step back this year, and I am one of those many. The Illini will still be competitive in the Big Ten this year with Katin Houser transferring in from East Carolina to lead the offense. He should have enough to throw to with a trio of solid receivers in Hudson Clement, Collin Dixon and Florida Atlantic transfer Jayshon Platt as well as a solid complementary run game featuring junior Ca’Lil Valentine. Nonetheless, the defense brings more questions for me than the offense. Illinois transitions to a 3-3-5 scheme this year behind first year DC Bobby Hauck. This should highlight this unit’s strength with most of the secondary returning including cornerback Xavier Scott from injury. However, the front 7 (6, I should say) lacks proven production and could falter stopping the run and putting pressure on the quarterback against the elite teams in the conference.

Schedule

9/3 UAB W

9/12 Duke W

9/19 Southern Illinois W

9/26 @ Ohio State L

10/3 Purdue W

10/10 @ Michigan State L

10/24 Oregon L

10/31 @ Maryland L

11/6 Nebraska W

11/13 @ UCLA L

11/21 Iowa W

11/28 @ Northwestern W

Over/Under Win Total: 6.5 +110

Projected Record: 7-5

Offense: B+
Defense: C+

It’s “Westwood Ho!” for Bob Chesney and 10 of his finest Dukes from Harrisonburg. The Bruins round out my top 10 with a UCLA roster that has been totally flipped on its head with 42 incoming transfers. Can Chesney find some of that year 1 magic Curt Cignetti had at Indiana? He certainly has a more talented quarterback with Nico Iamaleava ready to step into his own after a regressive sophomore season. He’ll have an excellent complementary run game with veteran Wayne Knight who should eclipse 1,000 yards once again this year. The defensive picture is more unclear with what should be a fairly average unit across the board. Sophomore defensive end Sahir White stands out from the crowd as he looks to see if he can continue making an impact at the power conference level. If everything clicks, this team could be a sleeping giant with Iamaleava at the helm, but the Bruins should at the very least be back bowling in 2026.

Schedule

9/5 @ California W

9/12 San Diego State W

9/19 Purdue W

9/26 @ Maryland W

10/10 @ Oregon L

10/17 Wisconsin L

10/24 Michigan State L

10/31 Nevada W

11/7 @ Minnesota W

11/13 Illinois W

11/21 @ Michigan L

11/28 USC L

Over/Under Win Total: 6.5 -105

Projected Record: 7-5

Offense: B-
Defense: B-

Is a 7-win regular season enough for Luke Fickell to keep his job? That isn’t up to me but that’s what I’m predicting the question will be for the Badgers at the end of the 2026 campaign. Wisconsin looks to be improved at the quarterback position this year with Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph who I am particularly high on. He’s got a dual threat skill set that should fit nicely into Jeff Grimes’ offense. Losing Christian Alliegro to Ohio State is a huge hit, but the linebackers still look to be a strength on defense with sophomore tandem Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano. With some much needed relief from the 2025 schedule and hopefully kicking the injury bug at the quarterback position, the Badgers should be much improved this year and put up a fight against most conference foes.

Schedule

9/6 Notre Dame L

9/12 Western Illinois W

9/19 Eastern Michigan W

9/26 @ Penn State L

10/3 Michigan State W

10/17 @ UCLA W

10/24 USC L

10/31 @ Iowa L

11/7 Rutgers W

11/14 @ Maryland L

11/21 @ Purdue W

11/27 Minnesota W

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 -160

Projected Record: 6-6

Offense: B-
Defense: B-

Rowing the boat has hit the global stage in 2026, but PJ Fleck and Minnesota look to still be fighting the waves to escape mediocrity. Quarterback Drake Lindsay returns for his redshirt sophomore season captaining what should be a very balanced offense for the Gophers. They’ve got a stable of serviceable backs alongside transfers that bolster the wideout room with returning redshirt sophomore Jalen Smith. But it’s the Smith on the other side of the ball that should be the real gamebreaker again for Minnesota. Coming off of a 12.5 sack campaign, teams are going to have to gameplan around Anthony Smith once again. Losing Koi Perich to Oregon is definitely a big blow to this defense, but this still should be a solid group anchored by redshirt senior linebacker Maverick Baranowski. There should be a lot of close contests for the Golden Gophers this season as they forecast to again finish around the middle of the league.

Schedule

9/3 Eastern Illinois W

9/12 Mississippi State W

9/19 Akron W

9/26 @ Washington L

10/3 Michigan L

10/10 @ Purdue W

10/24 Iowa W

10/31 @ Indiana L

11/7 UCLA L

11/14 @ Penn State L

11/21 Northwestern W

11/27 @ Wisconsin L

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 +105

Projected Record: 6-6

Offense: B-
Defense: B-

This feels like a volatile season ahead for both the Terps and head coach Mike Locksley. Can they put together a solid record this year behind uber-talented sophomore QB Malik Washington? They’ll need much more consistent play out of him this year as we saw flashes of elite ability last year but mostly just flashes. He’s going to need some capable weapons to emerge and Old Dominion transfer Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding seems as good of a bet as any. The defensive front looked to be a strength for Maryland going into 2026, but news of a training camp injury to DE Zahir Mathis puts a damper on things. They’ll need 5-star freshman Zion Elee to fill in opposite Sidney Stewart and make an impact early in his career. This could be a surprisingly competitive 9-3 squad or a 2-10 team whose coach is gone by mid-October. I’m going to fence ride here.

Schedule

9/5 Hampton W

9/12 @ UConn W

9/19 Virginia Tech L

9/26 UCLA L

10/3 @ Nebraska L

10/10 @ Ohio State L

10/17 Rutgers W

10/31 Illinois W

11/7 @ Purdue W

11/14 Wisconsin W

11/21 @ USC L

11/28 Penn State L

Over/Under Win Total: 6.5 +115

Projected Record: 6-6

Offense: B-
Defense: C

What do we do with Nebraska… Heading into year 4 of the Matt Rhule era with Dylan Raiola transferring to Oregon is not a great sign for the direction of the program. UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea, however, should be a workable replacement after getting baited by Kenny Minchey. Losing Emmett Johnson will definitely be a hit to the rushing attack, so I expect a lot of the offensive potency in Dana Holgorsen’s offense to fall on Colandrea’s ability to distribute the ball to returning weapons Jacory Barney and Nyziah Hunter. New Broyles Award finalist DC Rob Aurich is tasked with turning around a bottom third of the conference unit in his first season. He’s got the talent with Owen Chambliss and Anthony Marshall transferring in to bolster the roster. I’m expecting a hot start from the Huskers in 2026 and am excited to make a nice windfall on the betting markets when they inevitably falloff.

Schedule

9/5 Ohio W

9/12 Bowling Green W

9/19 North Dakota W

9/26 @ Michigan State W

10/3 Maryland W

10/10 Indiana L

10/17 @ Oregon L

10/31 Washington L

11/6 @ Illinois L

11/14 @ Rutgers W

11/21 Ohio State L

11/27 @ Iowa L

Over/Under Win Total: 3.5 -170

Projected Record: 5-7

Offense: C+
Defense: C

Pat Fitzgerald returns to the Big Ten to kick-off a new era of Spartan football in East Lansing. Overall, I see Michigan State as a real wild card team this year. You’ve got likely starting QB Alessio Milivojevic with veteran UCF transfer Cam Fancher close on his heels. A roster full of veteran transfers that is tough to predict outside of some solid pieces like former-NC State defensive end Kenny Soares. And very few returning pieces that fit well into this new regime. Jordan Hall should have another solid season in the middle of the Spartan defense, and I expect a bounce-back from WR Chrishon McCray now that he doesn’t have to deal with Aidan Chiles throwing him the ball. This is a tough squad for me to forecast this year, but I see Michigan State flirting with bowl eligibility late into the season.

Schedule

9/4 Toledo W

9/12 Eastern Michigan W

9/19 @ Notre Dame L

9/26 Nebraska L

10/3 @ Wisconsin L

10/10 Illinois W

10/17 Northwestern W

10/24 @ UCLA W

11/7 @ Michigan L

11/14 Washington L

11/20 Oregon L

11/28 @ Rutgers L

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 -110

Projected Record: 5-7

Offense: C-
Defense: B-

As I write this, Northwestern will definitely find more than 5 wins as the North Shore ‘Cats always scrap together more Ws than expected, especially with a navigable schedule outside of a 3 week stretch that features, Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State. My biggest gripe with Northwestern is who David Braun has brought in to fill in at quarterback… Aidan Chiles. He’ll have to make some significant steps this year if the Wildcats want to go bowling. They do bring in a nice piece with wide receiver Griffin Wilde from South Dakota State (revenge game Week 1) to help aid in Chiles’ improvement. I do think this will be a solid defense with the D-line potentially being a weak point outside of DE Michael Kilbane. The back 7 is full of talent though with the likes of FS Robert Fitzgerald and linebacker duo Braydon Brus and Oklahoma transfer Kobie McKinzie. I just know this team is somehow going to win like 8 games aren’t they… Nonetheless, I really like the Wildcats to pull one over on Matt Campbell and the Nittany Lions as new Ryan Field opens up for conference play on October 2nd.

Schedule

9/5 South Dakota State W

9/19 Colorado W

9/25 @ Indiana L

10/2 Penn State W

10/10 Ball State W

10/17 @ Michigan State L

10/24 Rutgers W

10/31 @ Oregon L

11/7 Iowa L

11/14 @ Ohio State L

11/21 @ Minnesota L

11/28 Illinois L

Over/Under Win Total: 4.5 -156

Projected Record: 4-8

Offense: C+
Defense: C-

Greg Schiano begins year 7 on his Rutgers reunion tour with uncertainty at the most important position on the football field. Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan forecasts to be a downgrade from Athan Kaliakmanis. Stud receiver KJ Duff will hope he figures things out or else it will be bell-cow duty for thousand yard rusher Antwan Raymond. On the other side of the ball, the defense looks to improve from a sobering 17th ranked unit in the Big Ten last year. They’ll need lots of transfers and returnees to both break through to see modest improvement over last year’s performance. I’m expecting the Scarlet Knights to have a hard time stopping teams again in 2026 with the offense also slowing down some from last season. Still they definitely have a shot at getting back to a bowl game if things break right.

Schedule

9/3 UMass W

9/11 @ Boston College W

9/19 USC L

9/25 Howard W

10/3 Indiana L

10/17 @ Maryland L

10/24 @ Northwestern L

10/31 Michigan L

11/7 @ Wisconsin L

11/14 Nebraska L

11/21 @ Penn State L

11/28 Michigan State W

Over/Under Win Total: 3.5 +120

Projected Record: 2-10

Offense: C-
Defense: D+

Unfortunately, I don’t think this is the year the Boilers break their conference winless streak. Not drawing any teams in my projected bottom of the Big Ten certainly doesn’t help. In his second year, Barry Odom again tabs redshirt junior Ryan Browne as his starting quarterback. He’ll have to find some new favorite weapons among the assortment of skill position players transferring in. Defensively, it’s more of the same story with a transfer heavy roster. The D-line could be a strength here with some solid guys with proven production including Georgia transfer Elo Modozie. I’d also be remiss if I did not mention DB Mister Clark hawking around the Boilers secondary. Hopefully Curt Cignetti doesn’t take AD Tommy McClelland’s comments too harshly…

Schedule

9/4 Indiana State W

9/12 Wake Forest W

9/19 @ UCLA L

9/26 Notre Dame L

10/3 @ Illinois L

10/10 Minnesota L

10/16 Washington L

10/31 @ Penn State L

11/7 Maryland L

11/14 @ Iowa L

11/21 Wisconsin L

11/28 @ Indiana L

We’re set up in Indianapolis for a matchup that happened twice last year between Indiana and Oregon. A 95% raucous pro-IU crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium. Dan Lanning and the Ducks have been here before at the Peach Bowl in 2025 and get over another hurdle that the haters say they can’t in Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers to secure their 2nd B1G Championship in 3 years and lock up the #1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff. This Ducks roster is just too talented, experienced and deep for me to pick elsewhere.

Conference Champion: Oregon Ducks

Offensive Player of the Year: Jeremiah Smith (OSU)

Defensive Player of the Year: Rolijah Hardy (IU)

Freshman of the Year: Savion Hiter (MICH)

Coach of the Year: Dan Lanning (ORE)

Quarterback of the Year: Julian Sayin (OSU)

Receiver of the Year: Jeremiah Smith (OSU)

Running Back of the Year: Wayne Knight (UCLA)

Tight End of the Year: Jamari Johnson (ORE)

Offensive Lineman of the Year: Carter Smith (IU)

Defensive Lineman of the Year: A’Mauri Washington (ORE)

Linebacker of the Year: Rolijah Hardy (IU)

Defensive Back of the Year: Devin Sanchez (OSU)

Kicker of the Year: Nico Radicic (IU)

Punter of the Year: Tom Weston (MINN)

One response to “Big Ten Preview”

  1. Tomas T Avatar
    Tomas T

    Great analysis. I would switch your number 1 and 2, but other than that very solid.