2026 Win Totals – Part 1
Hello folks! I figure I’ll introduce myself since this is my first post here. I’m Runder and I’ll be your gambling expert at The CFB Blog. I’ll be your go to source for picks and wagers throughout the season alongside some special guests that will be joining me on my weekly Betting Guide.
While we wait for the season to kickoff in less than 2 weeks, it’s time to talk win totals for 2026. This will be a three-part series that will have 12 picks and 3 “locks”, picks I’m head and shoulders more confident in and willing to stake my reputation on. As those additional 2 parts become available, I’ll link them down below.
See below for my first 5 picks including my first lock!
Oklahoma – Over 7.5 (-162)
Brent Venables and Co. return 14 starters (including 8 on offense) from a year where they won 10 games and made the CFP. They also, most importantly, get back a healthy John Mateer after a thumb injury nerfed him in the second half of 2025. I see this as a bona fide playoff team again in 2026 with a chance at a deep CFP run. Despite the daunting SEC schedule and adding Michigan out of conference, I think the Sooners emerge among the top echelon of the SEC this year and score double-digit wins.
Stanford – Under 3.5 (-105)
The Cardinal project to be one of the worst power conference teams in 2026. There’s just not a ton of optimism for improvement this year with the conference schedule also getting more difficult. On offense, quarterback Davis Warren courageously won his battle with leukemia but nonetheless has not played a snap since 2024. On defense, they return 7 starters… but ranked last in the ACC in total defense last year. The schedule features 1 surefire win against Elon and then a few other chances at wins like Hawai’i (who they lost to last year), at Cal, and at Wake Forest. I just don’t see them winning 4 of the 5 or so “winnable” games on their schedule.
Ohio State – Over 9.5 (-180)
Ohio State failing to reach double-digit wins this year seems like a pipe dream even with how ominously the schedule looms on the season. I think this will be the best offense in college football behind Julian Sayin, and Matt Patricia will reload the defense with blue chips to craft another elite unit this year. While I see 6 potentially losable games on the schedule (Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon, Michigan), I trust Ryan Day and the Buckeyes will be in the CFP again this year and not lose more than 2 of those matchups.
Tulane – Under 7.5 (-150)
Jon Sumrall’s departure to Gainesville leaves only 5 starters remaining from the Green Wave’s 2025 CFP squad. New headman Will Hall brings in transfers Kadin Semonza (Ball State) and Zeon Chriss-Gremillion (Houston) to compete at quarterback. Neither have starting experience since 2024. In short, Tulane loses too much from last year’s team to reliably trust with 8 wins in 2026. They forecast to be much closer to competing for bowl eligibility than for an AAC title.
LOCK: BYU – Over 8.5 (-150)
What isn’t there to love about the Cougars this year. After an 11-win regular season, they return their highly coveted coach, one of the oldest and most experienced rosters in college football, including 8 starters on their elite defense from 2025, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier who should be much more consistent leading this offense in his sophomore season. BYU should again hit double-digit wins and be playing for a Big 12 conference title.
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