2026 Win Totals – Part 3
Welcome back for part 3! For the other parts to this series see the links below.
Now for the final 5 picks!
Oregon – Over 10.5 (+100)
I’m not sure what else I need to say about Dan Lanning’s squad that I haven’t already said in my additional futures blog post. If this team stays healthy, they have the roster to own both the #1 offense and defense in college football. The 10.5 number may scare some people off this total but that shouldn’t deter you when looking at elite college football teams and programs like Oregon. The schedule appears to be tricky but navigable with tough trips to both Los Angeles and Columbus while hosting Michigan and Washington in November. However, only one of those teams is in the same tier of the Big Ten as Oregon. The Ducks are my pick to win the national championship, so this over is a slam dunk for me.
Arkansas – Under 4.5 (-190)
The Ryan Silverfield era begins in Arkansas with somewhat muted excitement from Razorback fans. Truthfully, I think the fanbase is more ecstatic about Sam Pittman finally being gone than being over the moon about the hire. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that expectations have shifted much with the regime change at least in year 1. I’m not entirely pessimistic on the Hogs’ prospects this year as they brought in some solid freshmen paired with a decent portal class, but they didn’t draw any luck in terms of scheduling in the SEC this year. The Razorbacks don’t host any team in the bottom third of our SEC preview, and it’s tough to find a conference win on the schedule. Pair that with traveling to Salt Lake City in the out of conference slate, and it doesn’t look pretty for Silverfield in year 1.
Texas State – Over 5.5 (-170)
The Bobcats make the jump from the Sun Belt to the Pac 12 this year after a 7-6 campaign in 2025. While there might be a slight bump in competition in terms of strength of schedule, Texas State returns the majority of their offense from last year that averaged 36.5 points per game. Headlined by quarterback Brad Jackson and star receiver Beau Sparks, the Bobcats offense should be even more prolific than last year. It may be a rough start in Austin this Saturday, but in head coach GJ Kinne’s 4th season, this squad should definitely be at least bowl eligible again and could make some noise in the Pac 12 title race.
Kansas – Under 6.5 (-170)
In head coach Lance Leipold’s 5th season, the Jayhawks finished the year 5-7. Kansas has only regressed the last two years under his leadership after a 9-4 2024 season. They only return 6 starters from last year’s squad which could be construed either positively or negatively. They backfill the roster with 31 transfers, however, none really jump off the page as difference-makers outside of running backs Yasin Willis and Dylan Edwards (turncoat from Manhattan). Although reviews on former QB Jalon Daniels were mixed, it’s almost certainly a downgrade this year with sophomore Isaiah Marshall taking the reins. The schedule as well isn’t promising as Kansas faces a majority of the preseason top half of the Big 12 in conference play along with archrival Missouri. Vegas thinks this team will be bowl eligible. I think the Jayhawks may only get half the wins needed.
LOCK: Virginia – Over 7.5 (-150)
Things are looking up in Charlottesville following an 11-3 year in Tony Elliott’s 4th year at the helm. What I like the most about the Hoos this year is twofold: their experience and their schedule. On offense, outside of having the most seasoned offensive line in the country, they bring in quarterback Beau Pribula from Missouri from Penn State who I think will be an upgrade over Chandler Morris. The defense returns more starters from last year than the offense, headlined by senior linebacker Kam Robinson. In regards to the schedule, they only really play 4 or so losable games in my opinion with nothing scary besides the trip to SMU in mid-October. I think Tony Elliott continues to right the ship and parlays his team’s experience and fortunate schedule into the Cavaliers first ever CFP appearance in 2026.
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